UK: Challenges Facing the NHS in the Post-Brexit World


#1

Article by: Anonymous

Is the much-heralded health care system in the UK, the National Health Service (NHS), on the brink of a crisis? It appears so, especially in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum and the invocation of Article 50 of the European Constitution.

That the NHS has a shortage of funding has been known to one and all. In fact, one of the promises made by UKIP, the political party that was at the forefront of the fight for Brexit was that the funds that were sent to the EU by the British government would be used to shore up the NHS post-Brexit. They said that this would improve the quality of the healthcare in the UK significantly.

However, in reality, that does not seem to be the case. The NHS has a severe shortage of staff – doctors and nurses. A lack of 16,000 general physicians is expected by 2020. The nursing shortages are projected to be even worse, at 100,000 or more.

Since the 1990s, the UK has been filling up the shortage of doctors and nurses by recruiting them from EU countries. Many qualified doctors and nurses in EU countries such as Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary, to name just a few, are attracted by the prospect of the stable, long-term contracts provided by the NHS.

Nonetheless, with the UK deciding to leave the EU, and more importantly, because of the outcry against immigration in the UK, one expects the NHS to find it much more difficult to recruit medical professionals from these countries.

Brexit comes at a time when there is a severe nursing shortage in the NHS. There are many reasons for this – there is a significant aging population in the UK, which has created a demand for more nurses. The nursing workforce has aged considerably over the last decade, and a half and 33% of the nurses are in their 50s and are expected to retire over the next ten years.

The number of nursing specialists should go down by 10% over the next five years at this rate. This shortfall was expected to be filled up by nursing specialists from the EU, but Brexit has now put a question mark on that.

How vital are nursing specialists from the EU to the NHS? According to the July 2016 Institute for Employment Studies (IES) report, close to 5% of the nurses in the NHS in 2015 were from EU countries other than Ireland. That is up from 1% in 2009. In fact, in London, 20% of the nurses are from the EU.

Brexit will prove to be a stumbling block to the NHS’ goal of recruiting 100,000 social care workers to manage elderly patients and those who are chronically ill outside the hospital setting. This was meant to be a significant health care reform introduced a few years ago by the UK government, but now there are serious doubts regarding its feasibility.

Secondary care accounts for 78% of the healthcare budget allocated to the NHS. The government now wants to cut this down and focus more on primary and long-term care instead.

Usually, the vacancies for the social care jobs are filled up by social workers from the EU; but now, in the post-Brexit scenario, one expects an exodus of social care workers back to their home countries. This exodus should add further pressure on the NHS, which has been genuinely struggling to stay afloat at this point.


#2

There won’t be an exodus. Most if not all EU nationals will have an automatic right to stay. The question is, will they want to?

The entire Brexit fiasco is really just the biggest bank heist of the century. The EU’s official accounts have not been signed off by anyone for over 20 years. Every year, billions paid to the EU by all member states go missing. It vanishes. POP! Gone. This is reason enough for every country in the EU to say, “We are not paying you another penny until you have your accounts officially audited.”

Instead, while independent EU journalists get gruesomely murdered whenever they start following the money, the UK is busy ‘negotiating’ a way to pay as few billions as possible over the next 2-20-years in compensation to the EU for leaving. It’s all just a huge stage show, at the center of which is one word: Immigrant.

The NHS will be destroyed by Brexit. However, it won’t be because of staffing shortages. The UK doesn’t manufacture anything. Joining the EU went in tandem with an economic transition to a near 100% service economy. No mines. No manufacturing.

Hospital beds, ambulances, MRI scanners, bandages, you name it, they all get sourced from EU suppliers. Tax on imports will see NHS costs skyrocket. As will the fact that many NHS trusts have been carved up over the years. - To the point where several different companies lease services like ambulances and even patient wheelchairs to the NHS every time they needed. Some of those companies are EU based, all have EU hardware procurement contracts.

It boggles my mind how no one tries to cost Brexit from a purely economic perspective. You used to have an orchard. You sold it over half a century ago. Since then, then you’ve planted a McDonalds on top and yet believe that magically in a few months, you’ll be able to go back to the orchard and eat the same delicious fruit your trees used to bear. All because of very misplaced national sentiment.

NHS crisis? Get ready for an all out economic nightmare.


#3

I see! I wonder what @Value_Investor would think of it?

Oh, V. I. - anxiously awaiting your input! :slight_smile:


#4

Value Investor will likely counter my argument. However, this is only because as an investor, he swoons at the pomp and glamour of investment worthy ideas.

This is the problem with Brexit. It’s speculative investment heaven.

  • The UK could make an amazing trade deal with the U.S. - Okay, practically, though, the U.S. is a great deal more distant and lower import taxes will be countered by higher transport prices
  • The UK has the highest degree achievement rates in Europe and has brains! - Bull poo. Everyone with a degree is a sociologist
  • The UK will be the only energy efficient country in Europe in 10-years thanks to nuclear and fracking! - Yeah, pity we rely on French, Chinese, and U.S. companies to make all that happen
  • British produce will boom! - No. for the past 30-years, British farms have been living off EU subsidies and growing rapeseed. The earth is too low in nutrients to grow anything more than daisies and none of the farming infrastructure is there to grow anything better
  • The spirit of the Blitz will pull Britain through! No. During WWII, Brits had brains. Now they just have fast food, payday loans, and most call plumbers when light bulbs need replacing

I’m not attacking you @RegiAdd. I’m just putting my argument on the table in case I’m in bed by the time V.I. shows up.

Now, Mr. Investor. Do your thing! :slight_smile:


#5

NOT offended at all! Mr. Investor wrote that article for me! :grin:


#6

Oh… Then there may be all out war!

I shall be sleeping in my V.I. proof vest tonight. Thank you for the heads up!


#7

My specific take? Tata Motors. The Indian automobile company that owns the British high-end car maker Jaguar Land Rover. JLR has taken a serious hit because of Brexit and the trade war between the US and China. Because of which my Tata Motors shares are down by about $5000.

I also have a small amount in Tata Steel, which owns the British steel maker Corus. Corus has been a wealth destroyer for Tata Steel shareholders.

My advice for Indian companies: Never acquire any UK company in the future. The UK is a mess. Politically the most confused nation on the planet. I mean, who the hell is in charge of that country? May is a joke. Corbyn is pure evil. Boris Johnson is childish. Farage is a good man, but he belongs to a small party.

Look what they are doing to Tommy Robinson? I am a well wisher of the UK, but I don’t like what I’m seeing there. The country is going down and it all started in 2015, when Cameron for no bloody reason decided to go for the Brexit referendum.

In 2015 things looked so good - everything was going smoothly and this nonsense happens.

One of my biggest clients is an overseas property estate agent based in the UK. His business has taken a real beating because of Brexit and the political nonsense in that country. As a result I have lost out on a guaranteed $250/month I was getting from him for last 4 years.

So not at all happy with what’s going on in the UK, or for that matter anywhere in the world.


#8

Darn it! I was all fired up for a good argument!


#9

You got me all wrong brother if you think I argue only for the sake of argument. I don’t waste time on that. I say what’s on my mind, good or bad and forget about it.


#10

What’s with the Commonwealth, do you think that the UK would become more active with organizing free trade (I am not sure if there is one at the moment), I am sure that they can somehow exploit that organization in order to “soften” the blows that it would get after Brexit.

On the other hand, as the EU plans to integrate the South-East European countries, which are poor (Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Albania) by 2025. This means that the richer European countries would expect an influx of migrants coming from there. Although, maybe after the change of “government” in the EU from next year would change this perspective.

Just it’s interesting as there is a large pressure from the Western countries to solve all of the disputes between the Balkan nations. Like the deal between Macedonia and Greece, which would solve the name dispute, the pressure on Serbia and Kosovo to strike a deal for the border. There are many variables, but if those countries enter the EU, UK would get tons of migrants which would impact them negatively, plus, all those countries would create a lot of problems.

Even though UK would lose a lot from Brexit, and it is losing already. I am sure that on the long term it might be better. Don’t forget the fact that ultra-right wing parties are on the rise in Europe too, which 99% of them are eurosceptics.

And in my opinion the EU needs to reform itself. As now at the moment, it’s bad institution.


#11

The problem is there does not need to be an immigrant problem at all. I am from the UK. I have lived in Hungary, Spain, and Malta. In all of these countries, it is difficult to get a job unless you have a fixed address, possibly police certificate, and speak the local language. (At least outside of in bars in tourist areas). In all these countries, I also need to work full-time for at least 26-weeks and pay social security, before I can qualify for any kind of out of work benefit.

If the UK implemented the same, no benefits for 26-weeks rule, there would not be an influx of EU immigrants. Also, the majority of EU immigrants in the UK take up seasonal employment which provides them with accommodation. (Hotels, farm laboring.)

This is due to the exorbitant cost of living in the UK. In Malta, the average (real) net minimum wage is 800 - 1,000 Euros. Rents start at 300 Euros. Living costs are low. This allows even non-skilled people to live very comfortably. In the UK net minimum wages earned by EU immigrants start at £1,120 (approx). Rent starts at £500 to £700. Monthly local taxes on houses and apartments start at an extra £100. Energy prices are also higher. In this case, it makes zero economic sense for most non-skilled immigrants to try and live and work in the UK. - Especially since most arrive to work and send money home.

Non-EU immigration is why most Brits voted for Brexit. However, non-EU immigration is caused by the EU allowing people to claim asylum for economic reasons. If I was escaping persecution in Europe and took a boat the the USA, then walked to Canada to claim asylum, I would be denied due to not having claimed asylum in the first country I came to, and instead purposefully seeking out a better economic alternative.

Also the entire non EU immigration fiasco is nothing more than a massive human trafficing scam. I’ve talked to several boat people who have arrived in Malta from as far away as Liberia. They pay $1K to $5K to people to drive them overland and smuggle them through borders. Few of them can swim but this price also secures them a standing spot on an overcrowded 30-year old rubber dingy in Tunisia bound for Italy.

They tell you all this. They tell you how they have taken massive loans from loan sharks to make their whole deadly journey possible. Then they reenact the terror of hearing the coastguard and rescue ship horns for the first time.

Me: “One question.”

Immigrant: “What is it? Ask me.”

Me: “Do you have a passport?”

Immigrant: “Yes!”

Me: “Do you realize you could have got a direct flight for $600?”

And getting a direct flight is possible most of the time because when they get established, that’s how their mysteriously large numbers of cousins and friends arrive.

The vast majority of non-EU immigrants in Europe, are simply victims of the biggest and most deadly package holiday scam in history. One made possible by shady figures capitalizing on the fact that many of them don’t have home broadband.

As for the Common Wealth, there will never be freetrade. It would never be in the interest of the most natural resource-rich countries in the world to say “Sure, let’s drop tax on all our exports! You get cheaper rare earth metals, energy, and better quality agricultural produce. We get… I dunno, a Faulty Towers DVD box set?”

Someone needs to start a ‘No Left-Wing. No Right-Wing, Simply No :poop:’ political party. Then they need to bring criminal charges against anyone in the UK and EU politburo responsible a single penny in missing tax and brain-dead policy decisions. Only then can there be a sensible discussion about Brexit or even the EU’s future.


#12

I know a lot of Macedonians, which used the loophole in the Bulgarian law to get Bulgarian citizenship, and they relocated in the UK - but you are right most of them were either doctors, programmers, and in general people that are qualified. Mostly the ones that are not qualified relocate in Sweden, Germany, and Austria. God knows what they do there. In Vienna many understand Serbian, Macedonian or Bulgarian. Especially, the people working in Starbucks, McDonald’s, a great portion of them are ex-yu people.

I’ve been only to Hungary out of those countries. Budapest can be quite expensive in the tourist areas, however, on some of the travel forums people say that it’s pretty cheap at the places where locals gravitate. Don’t know if this is true. Personally, I would never work in Hungary, as the Hungarian people are pretty rude, nationalist oriented bunch. In contrast, Poland was awesome for me as a tourist.

People are telling me that Malta is a cool place for living, as there are a lot of Macedonians too (which work illegally - without working permits), and everybody likes it there.

For freelancers, Macedonia is a heaven. There are low-cost airline connections almost to every major European city, it’s dirt cheap to live here, even the Capital city (where I live) isn’t that expensive. Oh, and the best part is that the tax is so low, and if you use Payoneer you might skip the taxes at all. Maybe, in Romania is cheap for freelancers @razvan might tell us more.

I completely agree that this is the largest human trafficking business. My uncle works for the Macedonian border police, and they handle the migrants on our border with Greece. One of his colleagues, a cop, used a bus from the MOI’s carpool and smuggled migrants for $1500 each, he bought a couple of flats and a lot of real estate for a couple of months. However, he is in jail now, but he would do 2-3 years, and they didn’t confiscate his real estate, so that’s a win-win situation for him. Another person, a taxi driver, was making $3000 per trip, also, smuggling migrants.

Anyways, your perspective on Brexit is a great viewpoint that I haven’t considered (you are from the UK after all).


#13

You know, given a choice 99.99999999% of 1.3 billion Indians would leave this country and go the to US/UK/Australia whatever. I’m one of the 0.0000000000000000000000000000001%. So anyway, I laugh every time when idiot leftists in Europe and US talk about “Open Borders”, “Migration as a Human Right”, “Refugees are Welcome” etc.


#14

We have liberal friends who say, “We have plenty of room let them in.” Well, how about you open your house up to them as well as your bank account for the added taxes to pay for the welfare they will be using.

I am worried about what will happen when the caravan of illegal immigrants that is heading towards the US southern border finally reaches the border. It is said that it is made up of mostly men who have shoved what women and children they have to the front of the line so they can hide behind them.

I am glad to not live near the southern US border.


#15

Imagine how many of those men already work for the cartels. Just you yankees have Trump, I doubt that he would allow them to US soil that easy. Maybe he should hire Viktor Orban to help him out. :stuck_out_tongue:

Viktor Orban is the PM of Hungary, and he is a conservative leader which openly speaks against migrants while allowing the border guards to use force against the migrants (beating them and etc). If you have a guy like that your borders are safe. :wink:


#16

I have nothing against immigration, if the immigrants do not try to invade the US. If they get in legally that is fine. There are jobs that they are willing to do that it appears many Americans do not want to do. In the hotels it seems like all of the maids are Latinos.


#17

In Malta, pretty much all immigrants are men but the problems are very different to what many people assume. You basically have men who believe that they are going to come to Europe and get free money, get a great job, and genuinely change their life. A lot have also got into debt to pay for the journey and left dependent families back home who think that they will soon start receiving nice fat cheques to put food on the table.

Sadly, most never find work and thise that do find the worst work possible. They don’t get to pay off their debts and send money home. Then after a few months/years, they start forgoing (in many cases) certain religious beliefs and spend all day drinking cheap beer on benches. Then you get the creep of all the antisocial side-effects of that.

In my sleepy fishing village, there are male prostitutes here in summer. I used to ask my friend who all these men were sitting staring at all the people in the bars in the square on a weekend evening. When she told me I didn’t believe her. However, one night when I was walking home, I saw my then neighbor (a woman) taking a guy into her apartment who I can safely say she had known for about 5-minutes.

Others get approached by drug dealers and become disposable sellers of everyone’s favorite party drugs. Many of those that do get addicted themselves. The result is a tangible sense of shame and growing anger among many immigrant communities.

Not being able to get a job is put down to racism and imperialism rather than whether a person is qualified or not. Not being able to return home because of shame and the things some people do to survive are themselves a radicalization catalyst. Then more dangerous things start happening on the peripherals of society, as religious leaders and politicians start imparting faux sympathy for the sake of their own agendas.

Of course, you do also get a lot of immigrants who arrive in designer clothes with the latest iPhones in hand. These people often do land on their feet but usually only because they have help from in country connections they have, many of whom have connections to dirty money.

The whole immigration thing is like a wedding cake. People make it look pretty by covering it in icing. However when you cut into it there is just layer after layer of things which are really bad for you.


#18

There are tons of student job offers for hotel jobs in Montana for the upcoming summer - you know with the work & travel scheme.


#19

A great many of the summer workers in Glacier are from other countries.

Cy, what you said about immigration is interesting and sad. There are those who think the liberals welcome the illegals because if they take care of them they may get their votes.


#20

I know Viktor Orban - man’s man. God bless him.